Anas vs Humza

A victory for the Scottish left ... and for Labour?

Many will no doubt be relieved that Kate Forbes has not become First Minister. An open homophobe as Scottish leader could have been incredibly damaging for gay and trans rights, even if Forbes promised that her religious beliefs would not inform policy.

To look at this issue from a strategic angle, a Forbes victory might also have been bad news for Labour. At a time where Labour are keen to look fiscally conservative when it comes to borrowing and socially conservative on crime, transgenderism and immigration, a Forbes-led SNP would have been difficult to distinguish on non-independence issues.

Some may feel that Yousaf’s victory allows the SNP to actively distinguish themselves from Labour, by presenting a truly socialist alternative to voters. There is absolutely merit to this case, especially as First Minister Yousaf should ensure SNP victory in the big cities. However, I argue that such a party is much easier to make gains against, given Labour’s current state.

Since Starmer became leader of the Labour Party, rhetoric has been centred on distancing themselves from the language of the hard-left. Rachel Reeves and Kate Forbes would have delivered very similar economic messages, whereas against Humza’s party, Labour can play to their newfound strengths - fiscal responsibility and economic competence.

On social issues, this is even more the case. Starmer has been clear that he thinks 16 is too young for trans people to self ID and Kate Forbes has said she would not have supported the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. On the other hand, Humza Yousaf proudly stood up for trans rights, arguing in support of the Bill. For many voters, given how this Bill has been spun by the media and the Gender Critical lobby, Starmer’s position will likely seem more measured, reasonable and grown up.

Keir Starmer’s image is also fundamentally that of a technocrat, which contrasts well with the new First Minister’s idealistic, activist style.

Labour were always going to struggle in the cities, where support for independence is highest (as of 2014), but Forbes’ loss leaves rural seats open for the taking. Kate Forbes as First Minister would have restored trust in the SNP for the more conservative, rural voters, and Sarwar will no doubt be keen to capitalise on the opportunity that the continuity candidate brings.